• By Best Solar Company PK
  • 23 Oct, 2026
  • Net Metering
  • 8 min read

Pakistan's power distribution companies (DISCOs) have found a convenient villain for their shrinking sales: your rooftop solar system. Official filings now blame rooftop solar for an **8.66% year-on-year drop in grid demand** and a revenue shortfall of roughly **Rs33.8 billion** that they want to recover from the consumers who stayed on the grid. If you own panels — or are about to — this narrative matters, because it is the justification being used for lower buyback rates, new fixed charges and whispers of gross metering.

Here is what is actually happening, what it means for your bill, and the concrete steps to lock in solar value before the rules tighten again.

Why DISCOs Are Pointing at Rooftop Solar

As electricity tariffs climbed past Rs50 per unit for many slabs, households and businesses did the rational thing: they went solar. The result is a classic utility "death spiral." Grid sales fell sharply — several DISCOs reported domestic-sales declines approaching 10% between April and June 2026 — yet the companies are still locked into expensive capacity payments to power plants whether those plants run or not.

Those fixed capacity costs don't disappear when demand falls. They get spread across fewer units sold. So DISCOs filed for a quarterly adjustment of about **Rs33.8 billion** for Q2 (April–June) of 2026, dominated by capacity charges, to be clawed back from remaining grid consumers. In plain terms: the fewer people buy from the grid, the more each remaining buyer pays — which pushes even more of them toward solar.

The real problem isn't rooftop solar. It's a grid saddled with costly capacity contracts and line losses that solar simply exposed faster than planners expected.

Blaming solar is politically easier than renegotiating IPP contracts or fixing transmission and distribution losses. But because regulators accept the framing, solar owners are the ones facing the squeeze.

What Already Changed: Net Billing Replaced Net Metering

The first big tightening already landed. On **9 February 2026**, NEPRA notified the **Prosumer Regulations 2026**, repealing the decade-old 2015 net-metering framework and moving all new rooftop solar consumers to **net billing**.

The difference is money:

  • **Old net metering:** one unit you exported offset one unit you imported (1:1), effectively valuing your export at the full retail tariff — around **Rs25–27 per unit**.
  • **New net billing:** your export and import are no longer equal. You buy grid power at the full tariff (up to ~Rs50/unit) but the DISCO buys your surplus back at the National Average Energy Purchase Price — roughly **Rs10–13 per unit**, with some notifications citing figures as low as Rs8.13.

The standard agreement term was also cut from **seven years to five**. For a deeper breakdown, see our guide on the NEPRA net billing rules for 2026.

### Quick Comparison

| Feature | Net Metering (pre-9 Feb 2026) | Net Billing (new consumers) | |---|---|---| | Export valuation | 1:1 unit offset (~Rs25–27) | Buyback ~Rs10–13/unit | | Import price | Full retail tariff | Full retail tariff (up to ~Rs50) | | Agreement term | 7 years | 5 years | | Best system sizing | Oversize to bank units | Size to self-consumption |

What's Coming Next: Fixed Charges and Gross Metering

The Rs33.8bn narrative is the lever for the next round. Expect pressure in three directions:

1. **Lower buyback rates.** The NAEPP benchmark can be revised downward, shrinking what you earn for every exported unit. 2. **Capacity or fixed charges on solar users.** Proposals keep surfacing to levy a fixed monthly charge on prosumers to recover grid-maintenance and capacity costs regardless of how little you import. 3. **Gross metering.** The most aggressive idea: meter *all* your generation and sell it to the DISCO at a low wholesale rate, then buy back everything you consume at full retail — severing the self-consumption benefit that makes rooftop solar pay.

Nothing in category 2 or 3 is finalised, but the direction of travel is clear. Every tightening erodes the economics of exporting to the grid and rewards consuming your own generation on-site.

How to Lock In Value Before Further Tightening

The good news: the single most valuable protection is grandfathering. **If you signed a valid net-metering agreement before 9 February 2026, you keep your 1:1 offset and old buyback rate until that agreement expires.** That is worth tens of thousands of rupees a year versus the new terms.

If you're not yet protected, act strategically:

  • **Size for self-consumption, not export.** Under net billing, a unit you use yourself is worth the full ~Rs50 you'd otherwise pay — four to five times more than the ~Rs11 export rate. Match system size to your daytime load rather than oversizing to "bank" units.
  • **Add battery storage where it pays.** Storing surplus for evening use beats selling it at Rs11 and rebuying at Rs50. As lithium prices fall in 2026, payback on a modest battery is increasingly attractive for high-tariff users.
  • **Shift heavy loads to daylight.** Run pumps, washing machines, EV charging and industrial processes while the sun is up to maximise self-consumption.
  • **Get your paperwork and metering right.** Delays in approval or a mis-configured bi-directional meter can cost you months of value. Use an installer who manages the DISCO application end-to-end.
  • **Model your payback honestly.** A well-designed self-consumption system in Pakistan still pays back in roughly 3–5 years at today's tariffs — the math works, but only if you design around the new rules, not the old ones.

One practical insight from the field: many homeowners over-invested in export capacity under net metering. Under net billing, the smarter rupee goes into *storage and load-shifting*, not more panels pointed at the grid.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Is rooftop solar still worth it in Pakistan in 2026?** Yes — but the value now comes from offsetting your own expensive grid power, not from exporting. With tariffs near Rs50/unit and self-consumed solar effectively free after payback, a right-sized system still delivers strong returns, typically breaking even in 3–5 years.

**Did DISCOs really lose Rs34 billion because of solar?** DISCOs filed for about Rs33.8bn in Q2 2026 adjustments, driven mainly by fixed capacity charges spread over falling sales. Solar accelerated the demand drop, but the underlying cost is expensive capacity contracts and line losses — not solar itself.

**Will my old net-metering agreement be cancelled?** No. Agreements signed before 9 February 2026 are protected. You keep your 1:1 offset and original buyback rate until your 7-year term naturally expires, after which you'd move to the prevailing rules.

**What is gross metering and should I worry about it?** Gross metering would sell all your generation to the DISCO at a low wholesale rate while you buy back everything at full retail — erasing the self-consumption advantage. It's been floated but not adopted. Designing for self-consumption and storage is your best hedge if it ever arrives.

The Bottom Line

DISCOs will keep blaming rooftop solar for their structural problems, and regulators will keep using that story to justify tighter rules. You can't control the policy — but you can control your design. Lock in grandfathered terms if you qualify, build around self-consumption and storage, and get expert help sizing a system for the 2026 reality. The window to maximise value is open now; each tightening cycle narrows it. Talk to our team about a net-billing-optimised design before the next round of cuts.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.