Pakistan's 10-Year Solar Manufacturing Push: Buy Panels Now or Wait for "Made in Lahore"?

• By Best Solar Company PK
• 25 Jul, 2026
• Buying Guide
• 7 min read

Two announcements landed within weeks of each other this year, and together they have changed the question Pakistani solar buyers ask us most. In April 2026, Chinese manufacturers Kunlun Group and Sundar Green Group signed agreements with the Punjab government — after meeting Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz in Lahore — to begin solar panel manufacturing in the province. Then in June, the federal government confirmed that a comprehensive local manufacturing policy for solar panels and storage batteries is being finalised under the new industrial policy, building on the 10-year "Solar Panel Local Manufacturing and Allied Equipment" framework first drafted in 2024.

So the WhatsApp-group question writes itself: if panels will soon be made in Lahore, should you hold off buying at today's Rs 43–48 per watt for documented Tier-1 imports — or lock in now before taxes move the other way?

Short answer: if you have the roof and the load, buy now. Here is the full reasoning, with numbers we verified this week.

What the 10-Year Policy Actually Promises

The manufacturing push has three moving parts. First, the 10-year solar panel manufacturing policy, which offers incentives to local producers — and, critically, envisages tariffs on imported finished panels to protect them. Second, the National Lithium-Ion Battery Manufacturing Policy (2026–2031), which advanced through high-level review in January 2026 and has selected lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technology for initial localisation. Third, an incentive package recommended by the Competition Commission of Pakistan in April 2026: 10-year tax exemptions for manufacturers, low-cost land in special economic zones, production-linked incentives, local content requirements, export rebates, and joint ventures with Chinese firms under CPEC.

Read that first part again, because it is the detail most buyers miss. The policy's own mechanism for making local panels viable is making imported panels more expensive. That matters enormously for the wait-or-buy decision.

The Lahore Agreements: Real, But Not a Factory Yet

The April 2026 agreements with Kunlun Group and Sundar Green Group are genuine progress: Punjab approved, in principle, a 1,000-acre industrial estate in Lahore, projected around 18,000 jobs, and even a programme to send 50,000 Pakistani students to China for industrial training.

But an agreement is not a production line. Land acquisition, plant construction, equipment import and commissioning typically take 18 to 30 months even on an aggressive schedule. Realistically, the first meaningful volumes of Lahore-assembled modules arrive in 2027–28 — and early output will almost certainly be *assembly* of imported Chinese cells, not full local manufacturing of wafers and cells.

Will Local Panels Really Beat Rs 43–48 Per Watt?

This is the uncomfortable truth of the buying decision: probably not — at least not versus *today's* import prices.

Chinese module prices are sitting near historic global lows, which is exactly why Tier-1 N-type TOPCon panels from Jinko, JA Solar and Trina retail in Pakistan at roughly Rs 39–45 per watt this July, with premium stock (LONGi HPBC, Canadian HJT) at Rs 41–48 and the broader market ranging Rs 38–47 depending on brand and documentation. A brand-new Pakistani assembly plant — smaller scale, imported cells and glass, costlier financing and energy — cannot undercut that on day one. No country has managed it; India's protected module industry still prices above Chinese imports years into its incentive scheme.

The realistic 2028 scenario is locally made panels priced at or slightly below *tariffed* import prices — which will likely be higher than what you can buy for this month.

What About the "17% GST"? Here's the Verified Tax Position

You may have seen warnings about a 17–18% GST hitting solar panels. Here is what actually happened. In June 2025, the government proposed 18% sales tax on imported panels; after industry pushback, the Finance Act 2025 enacted it at 10%, effective July 2025 — that 10% is what you are paying inside today's Rs 43–48/watt prices. In the 2026–27 budget cycle the government again floated raising it to the full 18% standard rate, and again dropped it: Business Recorder confirmed solar tax rates stayed unchanged in the Finance Act 2026, effective 1 July 2026.

So the full-rate GST has not bitten — yet. But note the pattern: two consecutive budgets have attempted it, and the case for taxing imports only strengthens once Lahore lines start producing. Also note how fast the market reprices on rumour alone — panels jumped roughly Rs 7,500–9,000 each in the pre-budget uncertainty this year before easing. Today's tax regime is the friendliest imports are likely to see for the rest of this decade.

Net Billing Changed the Cost of Waiting

The other half of the equation arrived on 10 February 2026, when NEPRA notified new prosumer regulations abolishing net metering for new applicants. Under the replacement net-billing regime, new solar consumers sell surplus units to the grid at roughly Rs 10–11 per unit (pegged to the national average energy purchase price), down from about Rs 26 under old net metering — while buying grid electricity at Rs 37–55 per unit before taxes. Agreements run five years, and system size is capped at your sanctioned load. Existing net-metering consumers keep their old rates until their contracts expire.

Two practical consequences. First, oversizing a system to sell electricity no longer pays — size for daytime self-consumption, and consider a battery for evening load. Second, waiting has a hard monthly price: every unit you draw from the grid at Rs 45–65 (with taxes and surcharges) is a unit a rooftop system produces for effectively nothing after payback.

Run the numbers on a typical 6 kW home system, which installs for roughly Rs 900,000–1,100,000 on-grid in mid-2026 and generates around 700–780 units a month. A household offsetting a Rs 30,000–40,000 monthly bill recovers its cost in roughly three to four years even at the Rs 10–11 export rate. Now compare the waiting bet: panels are only about 25–30% of that system cost (roughly Rs 260,000–290,000 of hardware at today's per-watt rates). Even a dramatic 25% price drop from future local manufacturing would save you about Rs 65,000–70,000 — while 18 months of waiting costs that household Rs 500,000–700,000 in electricity bills. The math is not close.

The Verdict

• **Households with bills above ~Rs 25,000/month:** buy now. Size to your sanctioned load and daytime usage; every month of delay costs more than any plausible future panel discount.
• **Businesses with daytime load:** the strongest case of all — self-consumption at commercial tariffs makes payback fastest, and the GST/tariff risk on imports is asymmetric against waiting.
• **Existing net-metering users:** your old buyback rate holds until your agreement expires. Do not panic-upgrade; expand only within your contract terms.
• **Low-usage households (under ~Rs 10,000/month):** you are the only group with a genuine case for waiting — solar economics were never urgent for you, and local batteries may improve your storage options by 2028.

Frequently Asked Questions

**When will locally made solar panels actually be available?** Realistically 2027–28 for first volumes from the Lahore projects, and early production will be assembly of imported cells rather than fully local manufacturing. Announcements are not inventory.

**Is there a 17% or 18% GST on solar panels right now?** No. Imported panels carry 10% GST, enacted in July 2025. Proposals to raise it to the full standard rate were dropped from both the 2025 and 2026 Finance Acts — but the attempt has now been made twice.

**What buyback rate do I get if I install solar today?** New connections fall under NEPRA's February 2026 net-billing regime: roughly Rs 10–11 per exported unit on a five-year agreement, with your system capped at sanctioned load. Design for self-consumption first.

**Will batteries get cheaper under the new policy?** The lithium battery policy (2026–2031) should eventually cut costs through local LFP assembly, but batteries currently face import duties the industry is still lobbying against. If your grid outages are manageable, an on-grid system now with a battery added later is a sound sequence.

**If local panels do get cheap in 2028, have I lost out by buying now?** No — solar is modular. A system bought today will have largely paid for itself by then, and you can add panels within your inverter's capacity later. Buying now and expanding later captures both sides of the bet.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.