Net-Metering Installs Fell 27.2% — Is Rooftop Solar Still Worth It in Pakistan?

• By Best Solar Company PK
• 11 Oct, 2026
• Energy Savings
• 8 min read

New net-metering connections in Pakistan fell **27.2% month-on-month in August 2026**, according to data from Arif Habib Limited — the sharpest signal yet that the switch to net billing has rattled buyer confidence. If you are a homeowner or business owner wondering whether **rooftop solar in Pakistan** still makes financial sense, the honest answer is yes — but the maths has changed, and the winners are now the people who *use* their own power instead of selling it.

Let's run the real numbers in PKR.

What actually changed: net metering vs net billing

In February 2026, NEPRA replaced the old net-metering framework with **net billing** under the Prosumer Regulations, 2026. The difference is simple but financially huge.

• **Old net metering:** every unit you exported offset a unit you imported, roughly one-for-one — effectively valuing your surplus at the retail tariff of Rs 35–55 per unit.
• **New net billing:** the two flows are now billed separately. You *import* at your normal consumer tariff (Rs 35–55/unit before taxes), but your *exported* surplus is bought back at the National Average Power Purchase Price — currently around **Rs 11 per unit** (reported figures range from Rs 8.13 to Rs 13).

NEPRA also cut contract durations from seven years to five. Crucially, if you signed a valid net-metering agreement before 9 February 2026, you are **grandfathered** onto your old terms until that contract expires. You can confirm the current rules directly on the <a href="https://www.nepra.org.pk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEPRA official website</a>.

That single sentence explains the 27.2% drop — and it also explains why solar still pays.

Why self-consumption is now the whole game

Under net metering, it barely mattered when you used your power; the grid acted like a free battery. Under net billing there is a roughly **3.5x gap** between what a unit is worth when you use it (avoided import ≈ Rs 40) versus when you export it (≈ Rs 11).

So the return on your rooftop system now depends almost entirely on your **self-consumption ratio** — the share of generation you use on-site during daylight hours instead of dumping to the grid.

Running the real PKR numbers

Take a typical **10 kW on-grid system** costing about **Rs 1,800,000** installed (2026 prices run roughly Rs 28–45 per watt). In most of Pakistan it generates around **15,000 units per year** (~1,250 units/month). Here is how the annual return shifts with self-consumption:

| Scenario | Self-use | Export | Annual value | Payback | |---|---|---|---|---| | Old net metering (all ≈ Rs 40) | — | — | ~Rs 600,000 | ~3.0 yrs | | Low self-use (40%) | 6,000 × Rs 40 | 9,000 × Rs 11 | ~Rs 339,000 | ~5.3 yrs | | Typical (60%) | 9,000 × Rs 40 | 6,000 × Rs 11 | ~Rs 426,000 | ~4.2 yrs | | High self-use (85%) | 12,750 × Rs 40 | 2,250 × Rs 11 | ~Rs 535,000 | ~3.4 yrs |

The takeaway is clear: even in the *worst* case, payback lands around five years on a system that carries a 25-year panel warranty. Push self-consumption up and you are back near the old net-metering payback of roughly three to four years.

With grid tariffs still climbing and panel prices at historic lows, rooftop solar in Pakistan remains one of the few investments returning 20–30% annually — it just rewards smart usage now instead of oversized export arrays.

How to maximise your return under net billing

Having sized dozens of systems since the rule change, here is what we now advise clients:

• **Right-size to your daytime load, not your bill.** Oversizing to export is dead money. A system that matches what your home or office draws between 9am and 5pm is the sweet spot.
• **Shift heavy loads to daylight.** Run the washing machine, water pump, iron and — critically — your **air-conditioning** during peak sun. This is the single biggest lever most households ignore.
• **Add a battery if your evenings are heavy.** Hybrid systems with lithium storage let you bank midday surplus (worth Rs 11 exported) and use it at night (worth Rs 40+). For high-evening-load homes, a battery now pays for itself far faster than it did under net metering.
• **Pre-cool and pre-pump.** Cool rooms and fill overhead tanks before sunset using free solar power.

One practical, first-hand tip: a simple energy monitor or smart plug setup that shows live generation versus consumption typically nudges families from ~55% to ~80% self-use within a month — no extra hardware, just behaviour.

Who should still go solar in 2026?

• **High daytime users** — offices, shops, schools, factories, work-from-home households — benefit most and should install immediately.
• **Heavy AC users** in Lahore, Karachi, Multan and Islamabad, where summer bills cross Rs 60,000–100,000/month, still see rapid payback.
• **Export-reliant, low-daytime-use homes** should resize smaller and strongly consider storage before committing.

If you want a plain-language breakdown of the policy itself, see our guide to the NEPRA net-billing rules for 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Is rooftop solar still worth it in Pakistan after net billing?** Yes. For most homes and businesses the payback is now roughly 3.5–5.5 years instead of 3–4, depending on how much power you use during the day. Against a 25-year system life and ever-rising grid tariffs, the lifetime savings remain very large.

**What is the net-billing buyback rate in 2026?** Surplus you export is purchased at around Rs 11 per unit (the National Average Power Purchase Price), with reported figures between Rs 8.13 and Rs 13 — far below the Rs 35–55 per unit you pay to import.

**Will my old net-metering agreement change?** No. If you signed a valid agreement before 9 February 2026, you keep your original terms and buyback rate until that contract expires, after which you move to net billing.

**Do I need a battery now?** Not always. Batteries make sense if you have heavy evening or night-time loads, because they let you use midday surplus (worth Rs 11 exported) at night (worth Rs 40+ avoided). Daytime-heavy users often do fine on a right-sized on-grid system.

The bottom line

The 27.2% drop in August 2026 reflects shaken confidence, not broken economics. Net billing has simply moved the reward from *exporting* units to *using* them. Size your system to your real daytime load, shift consumption into sunlight, and add storage only where it earns its keep — and rooftop solar in Pakistan still delivers a payback most other investments can't touch.

Ready to size a system around *your* usage, not just your bill? Get a free solar assessment from Best Solar Company PK and we'll model your exact payback under the 2026 net-billing rules.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.