• By Best Solar Company PK
  • 25 Oct, 2026
  • Solar Policy
  • 8 min read

If you have been waiting for a clear signal before putting panels on your roof, late October 2026 just made your decision more complicated. The **solar buyback rate** — the price your electricity company pays for the surplus power your panels push back to the grid — is now officially frozen mid-review.

On 22 October 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed the Power Division and NEPRA to re-verify the slashed buyback rate of roughly Rs8–11 per unit and to assess its system-wide impact before any reform is finalised. He also reiterated that "there is no change in the solar energy policy" and that promoting renewable energy remains a government priority. In practice, that leaves hundreds of thousands of prospective prosumers in limbo.

This guide explains exactly what is frozen, what is not, and how to decide whether to install solar now or wait for the dust to settle.

What actually changed in 2026

To understand the freeze, you need the back story. In February 2026, NEPRA notified the **NEPRA (Prosumer) Regulations, 2026** (SRO 251(I)/2026), which replaced the old one-to-one *net metering* system with a *net billing* model for new solar consumers.

The difference matters more than the jargon suggests:

  • **Net metering (old):** Every unit you exported offset a unit you imported, effectively valuing your surplus at the full retail tariff — around Rs25.9 per unit.
  • **Net billing (new):** You buy grid power at the full consumer tariff but sell your surplus back at a much lower fixed rate tied to the national average energy purchase price — initially pegged near Rs11 per unit, with NEPRA calculations at one point bringing it as low as Rs8.13.

That is a drop of roughly 55–65% in the value of every exported unit. For a typical household exporting more than half its generation, independent analysis found the blended value of rooftop solar fell by about 44–49%.

The panels still generate the same electricity. What changed is how much the grid is willing to pay you for the units you don't use yourself.

Why the PM froze the solar buyback rate

The rate cut triggered a public backlash. Pakistan crossed nearly 7,000 MW of installed rooftop solar in FY26, and millions of middle-class households had treated net metering as a reliable hedge against brutal grid tariffs. Slashing the export rate overnight felt, to many, like changing the rules after the game had started.

The Power Division's own proposal — cutting the rate from about Rs22 to roughly Rs11.30 per unit — leaned on the argument that generous buyback payments shift costs onto non-solar consumers, who are disproportionately lower-income. The PM's order to "re-verify" the number is essentially a demand to prove that math before it becomes permanent.

So the policy is not reversed. It is paused for scrutiny. The February framework is still law for new connections, but the final export rate is genuinely uncertain for the first time in months.

Install now or wait? The honest answer

Here is the practical calculus for Pakistani homeowners and businesses in 2026.

| Factor | Install now | Wait for the review | |---|---|---| | Export (buyback) rate | Locked at current terms on signing | Could rise slightly — or be confirmed low | | Grid tariff you avoid | Saved immediately | Keep paying full bills meanwhile | | Panel & inverter prices | Near historic lows | May not fall much further | | Policy certainty | You accept today's rules | You gamble on a better outcome | | Payback period | ~4–6 years (self-use heavy) | Unknown start date |

The single most important insight: **net billing rewards self-consumption, not export.** Under the old system, it hardly mattered whether you used your power or sold it — a unit was a unit. Now, every unit you consume directly saves you the full retail tariff (often Rs50–65+ per unit in higher slabs), while every unit you export earns only Rs8–11.

That flips the design logic. A right-sized system that you actually use during daylight hours still pays back in roughly four to six years at current prices — even at the lower buyback rate.

What a system costs today

Hardware prices remain a strong reason to act. In late 2026, a quality on-grid residential system runs approximately:

  • **5 kW:** Rs700,000 – Rs1,000,000
  • **10 kW:** Rs1,300,000 – Rs1,900,000
  • **15 kW:** Rs1,900,000 – Rs2,700,000

Prices vary by panel tier, inverter brand, and structure. The key point is that the capital cost — the biggest variable in your payback — is not what the PM's review will change. The review only touches export pricing, which for a self-consumption-focused household is a secondary stream.

For a deeper breakdown of how the mechanism works, see our explainer on the NEPRA net billing rules for 2026.

A concrete, original tip for the freeze window

Here is something most installers won't volunteer: **size your system to your daytime load, not your total bill.** Before the net-billing era, oversizing to "bank" export credits was smart. Today it is a trap — you pour capital into panels whose surplus earns a fraction of its old value.

Pull your last 12 months of bills, estimate your 9am–4pm consumption, and design the array to cover that plus a modest cushion. Pair it with a small battery only if your evening load and load-shedding justify it. This single adjustment protects you regardless of where the frozen rate finally lands.

And if you are a business with heavy daytime operations — offices, factories, cold storage — your self-consumption profile is nearly ideal. For you, the buyback debate is almost irrelevant; waiting mostly means burning money on grid power you could already be avoiding.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Is net metering completely gone in Pakistan in 2026?** For new applicants, yes — NEPRA replaced it with net billing in February 2026. However, prosumers who signed a net metering agreement before 9 February 2026 are protected and keep their old one-to-one terms until their contract expires.

**What is the current solar buyback rate after the PM's order?** The proposed net billing rate sits in the Rs8–11 per unit range. The PM's late-October 2026 directive has frozen that figure pending re-verification by NEPRA and the Power Division, so the final number is not yet confirmed.

**Should I wait for the review before installing solar?** Usually no. The review only affects the export rate, which is now a minor part of solar economics. Savings from self-consumed power — avoiding Rs50–65+ per unit grid tariffs — begin the day your system switches on, and hardware prices are already near record lows.

**Will existing solar owners lose their net metering deal?** Not during their contract. But Discos are authorised to move customers to net billing once their current agreement expires, so check your agreement's validity date and renewal terms.

The bottom line

The freeze on the **solar buyback rate** is a reminder that policy can shift fast — but it is not a reason to sit paralysed. Net billing has already reshaped the math around self-consumption, and that logic holds no matter how the review ends. For most homeowners and almost every daytime-heavy business, a correctly sized system still pays for itself within a few years.

Thinking of moving ahead? Get a free solar assessment and we'll design a system around your actual usage — so you benefit immediately, whatever NEPRA decides next.

Sources: Tribune — NEPRA draft amendments, Dawn — PM steps in after backlash on solar rules, NEPRA

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.