Why 6 GW of Rooftop Solar Is Just 0.82% of the Grid — And What It Means for Your Bill

• By Best Solar Company PK
• 02 Aug, 2026
• Solar Policy
• 8 min read

Pakistan has quietly crossed a milestone most policymakers never planned for: more than **6 GW of rooftop solar** connected under net metering. Yet in the official June generation data, all that **rooftop solar Pakistan** capacity registered as barely **0.82% of grid electricity produced**. How can six gigawatts of panels — enough, on paper, to rival a large power plant — almost vanish from the numbers?

The answer is one of the most important ideas in Pakistan's energy story right now: *behind-the-meter demand destruction*. Understanding it explains why your grid bill keeps climbing even as solar booms, and why NEPRA suddenly slashed the net-metering buyback rate in 2026.

The 6 GW that the grid can't "see"

By the end of June 2025, cumulative net-metering capacity had climbed from roughly 4.9 GW at the close of 2024 to about **6.1 GW**, according to Arab News reporting on NEPRA data. Around 1.2 GW was added in just six months.

But capacity is not the same as *grid-visible generation*. A rooftop system in Karachi or Faisalabad mostly powers the home or factory it sits on. That electricity never travels through the utility's generation meter — it is consumed on-site, instantly.

Only the **surplus** a prosumer exports gets recorded by the grid. Everything self-consumed simply shows up as *lower demand*. So when the grid tallied June generation, it counted only the exported trickle — not the enormous behind-the-meter output.

Net-metered exports (excluding Karachi) averaged about **174 GWh per month** in mid-2025, peaking above 300 GWh in April. Against total national generation, that visible slice is roughly **0.6% to under 1%** in most months — hence the ~0.82% June figure. The real solar footprint, hidden inside "reduced consumption," is several times larger.

What "behind-the-meter demand destruction" actually means

Demand destruction is when consumption permanently leaves the grid, not because people use less energy, but because they source it elsewhere. In Pakistan, that "elsewhere" is the roof.

Independent analysis by Ember and Renewables First estimates total distributed solar — including off-grid and non-net-metered systems, inferred from panel imports — at a staggering scale, far beyond the 6 GW formally registered. Much of it is invisible to official statistics.

The consequences are concrete:

• **Grid electricity sales fall**, even as the population and economy grow.
• **Peak-shaving happens midday**, exactly when solar is strongest, flattening daytime grid demand.
• **High-usage consumers leave first** — precisely the customers whose bills subsidised everyone else.

Why this quietly raises your tariff

Here is the painful part for anyone still fully on the grid. Pakistan's power tariff is dominated by **capacity payments** — fixed charges owed to power plants (IPPs) whether or not their electricity is used. These are largely dollar-indexed and run into trillions of rupees a year.

Those fixed costs don't shrink when rooftop solar reduces grid sales. They get **spread across fewer grid units**. Fewer units sold, same fixed bill, means a *higher per-unit cost* for everyone left.

This is the classic **utility "death spiral"**: high tariffs push people to solar, solar shrinks the grid customer base, and the shrinking base pushes tariffs higher still. It's why non-protected residential slabs now reach the **Rs 34–65 per unit** range for heavy users, per ProPakistani's tariff breakdown, even after the government's Rs 7.41/unit relief in 2025.

To defend the grid's finances, NEPRA has moved on two fronts:

1. A **two-part tariff** adding a fixed charge tied to your sanctioned load — so the utility earns from you even if your imports drop. 2. A shift from net metering to **net billing** for new prosumers, effective **9 February 2026**.

Net billing: the game just changed for new solar owners

Under the old net metering, an exported unit offset an imported unit almost one-for-one — a superb deal. Net billing breaks that link.

Now, units you import are charged at the full slab tariff, while units you export are bought back at a **much lower rate**. For new consumers, NEPRA cut the buyback to **Rs 8.13 per unit**, down from around Rs 25–27, as confirmed by pv magazine. Existing net-metering users keep their older rate (about Rs 25.32/unit) for the remainder of their term.

| Factor | Old net metering | New net billing (from Feb 2026) | |---|---|---| | Export buyback (new users) | ~Rs 25–27/unit | **Rs 8.13/unit** | | Import charge | Offset against exports | Full slab tariff | | Contract term | 7 years | 5 years | | Est. payback (residential) | 3–5 years | 10–12 years |

The takeaway is blunt: **exporting is no longer where the money is. Self-consumption is.** The economics now reward sizing your system to your own daytime load — and adding batteries — rather than selling a big surplus cheaply to the grid.

What this means for you in 2026

For homeowners and businesses in Pakistan, the strategy has flipped:

• **Right-size the system** to match daytime consumption; oversizing to export is far less rewarding now.
• **Consider storage.** With buyback at Rs 8.13 but import tariffs above Rs 30–60, storing your own units to use at night beats selling them cheaply.
• **Act on timing.** If you install before your DISCO processes you under the new regime, older terms may still apply — verify current status with your utility.
• **Read your bill's fixed charges,** not just the per-unit rate. The two-part tariff means partial self-generation no longer zeroes your bill.

If you're weighing a system today, our guides on choosing the right solar system size and solar batteries for load-shedding walk through the new math in detail.

The bigger picture is a paradox: rooftop solar is one of the great success stories of Pakistani households fighting back against unaffordable power — yet its very success, hidden as 0.82% of the grid, is reshaping tariffs for everyone. The smartest move now is to build for **energy independence**, not for exporting to a grid that increasingly can't afford to pay you well for it.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Why does 6 GW of rooftop solar only count as 0.82% of grid generation?** Because most rooftop solar is consumed on-site, "behind the meter." It never passes through the utility's generation meter, so it appears as reduced demand rather than supply. Only the small exported surplus is recorded, which is why the grid-visible figure stays under 1%.

**What is behind-the-meter demand destruction?** It's when electricity consumption permanently leaves the grid because consumers generate their own power. The energy is still used — it just isn't bought from the utility, so grid sales fall while total energy use does not.

**Does rooftop solar make grid electricity more expensive for others?** Indirectly, yes. Fixed capacity payments to power plants stay the same but are spread over fewer grid units sold, raising the per-unit cost for remaining grid customers — a key reason NEPRA revised net-metering rules.

**Is rooftop solar still worth it under net billing in 2026?** Yes, but the payoff now comes from self-consumption, not exports. With import tariffs far above the Rs 8.13/unit buyback, sizing your system to your own load and adding a battery gives the best returns, even with a longer 10–12 year payback for grid-tied setups.

**Conclusion:** Pakistan's rooftop solar boom is real and growing — it's simply hiding inside the demand numbers instead of the supply numbers. Understand net billing, prioritise self-use, and design for independence. Talk to our team for a free system assessment tailored to the 2026 rules before you buy.

Sources: Arab News, Ember, pv magazine, ProPakistani.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.