• By Best Solar Company PK
  • 31 Oct, 2026
  • Solar Policy
  • 8 min read

If you have been holding off on rooftop solar, the **solar buyback rate** is probably the reason. After the government moved to cut the net-metering buyback rate from **Rs22 per unit to roughly Rs11.30 per unit**, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stepped in on **22 October** and ordered the Power Division and <a href="https://www.nepra.org.pk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEPRA</a> to urgently review the proposed cut before it is finalised. That single directive has left thousands of Pakistani homeowners and businesses asking the same question: will the solar buyback rate be raised again — and is it smarter to wait or install now?

Here is an honest, numbers-first answer based on what the policy actually says in 2026.

What PM Shehbaz Actually Ordered on October 22

At a high-level energy meeting, the Prime Minister did **not** reverse the cut. He directed the Power Division and NEPRA to *verify* the proposed Rs11.30 rate and *assess its impact* on new solar adopters before the regulation is locked in.

Key points from the directive:

  • The current net-metering buyback rate is **Rs22/unit**; the proposal brings it down to about **Rs11.30/unit** — a roughly **49% reduction**.
  • An even lower figure of **Rs10/unit** was floated earlier but shelved after cabinet opposition.
  • The review is about *confirming* the number and softening the optics, not abandoning the shift away from one-to-one net metering.

The order is a political pause for review — not a promise that the Rs11 buyback rate will be pushed back up to Rs22.

Why the Buyback Rate Was Slashed to Rs11

To judge whether the rate will rise, you have to understand why it fell. The government's case rests on grid economics, not hostility to solar.

  • Grid electricity sales fell by **3.2 billion kWh in FY2024** as rooftop solar spread.
  • Officials say this shifted roughly **Rs101 billion** in fixed costs onto non-solar consumers and pushed average tariffs up by about **Rs0.90/unit**.
  • By **FY2034**, with projected net-metering capacity above **8,000 MW**, that cross-subsidy burden could reach **Rs545 billion**.

The Rs11.30 figure is pegged to the **national average energy purchase price** — what the state pays bulk generators. In the regulator's logic, exported solar should be bought at that wholesale price, not at the retail tariff. That is the core of the move from **net metering** to **net billing**, where the unit you export is no longer treated as equal to the unit you import.

Will the Solar Buyback Rate Be Raised?

Realistically, expect a *tweak, not a reversal*. The pressures that drove the cut — circular debt, IMF commitments, and the cross-subsidy maths above — have not gone away. The most likely outcomes of the review are:

  • A **slightly higher or phased rate** (for example, holding nearer Rs13–Rs15 for a transition period) rather than a return to Rs22.
  • **Protection for existing consumers**, which is already confirmed: homeowners with valid net-metering agreements keep their **Rs22/unit** rate and original **7-year** contract term until it expires.
  • A firm shift to **net billing with shorter (around 5-year) contracts** for all new applicants.

So if you are banking on the review restoring the old generous rate, the odds are against you. Read our explainer on net metering vs net billing in Pakistan to see exactly how the two models differ.

Should You Wait or Install Solar Now?

Here is the decision laid out plainly. A typical **5 kW** home system costs about **PKR 700,000–1,100,000**, and a **10 kW** system around **PKR 1.2M–1.8M** in 2026.

| Factor | Install Now | Wait for the Review | |---|---|---| | Buyback rate secured | Current/transition terms, possibly grandfathered | Whatever NEPRA finalises — likely still ~Rs11 | | Contract length | Better chance of a longer agreement | Likely locked to ~5 years | | Grid tariff you avoid | Rs60–Rs75/unit from day one | You keep paying full grid rates while you wait | | Price & subsidy risk | Lock in today's panel prices | Prices and policy can both move against you | | Payback period | Starts immediately | Delayed by every month you wait |

The hidden cost of waiting is the **Rs60–Rs75 per unit** you keep paying the grid every month that your roof sits empty. That ongoing loss usually dwarfs any small rate improvement the review might deliver.

The Insight Most Buyers Miss: Self-Consumption Beats Buyback

This is the practical tip that changes the whole calculation. **The buyback rate only applies to the surplus you export** — not to the power you use yourself.

When your panels run your ACs, fans, pumps and appliances in real time, each of those units offsets grid electricity priced at **Rs60–Rs75/unit**. That saving is completely unaffected by the Rs11 buyback rate.

  • Size your system to match your **daytime load**, not to maximise export.
  • Shift heavy usage (washing, ironing, water pumping, EV charging) to **daylight hours**.
  • Consider a small **battery** so evening load draws from stored solar instead of the grid.

Done right, a correctly sized system in Lahore, Karachi or Islamabad still pays back in roughly **4–7 years** even under net billing — because 70–80% of its value comes from self-consumption, not from selling to the grid. For help choosing capacity, see our guide to the best solar system size for a Pakistani home and current solar panel prices in Pakistan.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Will the solar buyback rate go back up to Rs22 per unit?** Almost certainly not for new consumers. PM Shehbaz ordered a review of the Rs11.30 rate, but the government's grid-cost argument and the shift to net billing make a full return to Rs22 highly unlikely. Expect a modest adjustment at most.

**Do existing net-metering users lose their old rate?** No. Consumers with a valid net-metering agreement are protected at the **Rs22/unit** rate for the remainder of their 7-year contract. The new Rs11 net-billing regime applies to new applicants.

**Is it still worth installing solar at a Rs11 buyback rate?** Yes. The buyback rate only affects exported surplus. The bulk of your savings comes from self-consuming power that would otherwise cost Rs60–Rs75/unit from the grid, so solar remains strongly profitable even at Rs11.

**Should I rush to apply before the new rules take full effect?** If your paperwork and roof are ready, applying sooner improves your chances of a longer contract term and better grandfathered terms. Waiting mainly delays your savings without a reliable upside.

The Bottom Line

The October 22 review is a pause for verification, not a signal that the **solar buyback rate** is heading back to Rs22. With existing users protected, net billing confirmed, and grid tariffs sitting at Rs60–Rs75/unit, the maths favours acting now and sizing your system around self-consumption.

**Talk to Best Solar Company PK today** for a free load assessment and a net-billing-optimised design that pays back fast — whatever NEPRA decides next.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.