Net Billing Killed the Export Bonus. Here's Why Solar + Battery Still Pays Back in 3–5 Years

• By Best Solar Company PK
• 21 Jul, 2026
• Buying Guide
• 9 min read

For years, the pitch for rooftop solar in Pakistan was simple: install panels, spin your meter backwards, and let the grid pay you Rs25–27 for every unit you exported. That era is over.

In its December 2025 overhaul, NEPRA replaced the old net-metering "unit exchange" with a **net billing** model for new solar connections. Under net billing, your imported and exported units are treated separately. You *buy* electricity from your DISCO at the full retail tariff — anywhere from Rs28 to Rs48 per unit depending on your slab — but the grid now *buys* your exported units at roughly the national average energy purchase price, reported at around **Rs8.13–11 per unit**. The generous Rs25+ buyback survives only for existing net-metering customers, who are grandfathered on their old contracts.

So the question every buyer is now asking is fair: if the grid barely pays for my surplus, is solar still worth it — especially with a battery that got roughly 48% more expensive?

The short answer: yes, but the *reason* has changed completely.

The economics flipped: it's no longer about selling, it's about not buying

Here is the single most important number to internalise. Under net billing there are two very different "prices" for a unit of solar electricity:

• A unit you **export** to the grid is worth about **Rs8–11**.
• A unit you **use yourself** instead of importing is worth the retail tariff you avoid — roughly **Rs28–48**.

That single gap is why the conversation has shifted to **self-consumption**. Every unit your panels produce that you can use *the moment it's generated* saves you the full retail rate. The problem is timing: panels produce at midday, but Pakistani households and many businesses peak in the evening — ACs, fans, lights, TVs after Maghrib. Without storage, that midday surplus goes to the grid for pennies, and you buy it back at night for rupees.

A battery closes that gap. It parks your cheap midday generation and releases it during the expensive evening hours, so you're self-consuming closer to 80–90% of what you produce instead of 40–50%.

What a self-consumption system actually costs in 2026

Prices vary by brand and city, but current market figures for a typical urban home look like this:

• **10kW hybrid solar system** (panels, hybrid inverter, mounting, installation): **PKR 1,100,000–1,500,000**
• **Lithium (LFP) battery, 5kWh usable:** **PKR 200,000–290,000**
• **Lithium battery, 10kWh usable:** roughly **PKR 420,000–600,000**

A complete 10kW hybrid setup with a 10kWh lithium bank lands most homes around **PKR 1.4–1.8 million** installed.

Yes, batteries hurt. Because Pakistan imports nearly all its lithium cells, layered duties and surcharges have pushed lithium prices up by an estimated **48%**. A battery bank that might have cost PKR 300,000 two years ago now sits closer to PKR 450,000. That's real, and it's the number that scares buyers off. But it has to be weighed against what the battery *earns* — and against tariffs that keep climbing.

The payback math, done honestly

Let's work a realistic mid-sized home. Assume:

• A 10kW system generating about **52 units/day** — roughly **1,560 units/month** in Lahore or Islamabad, more in Multan or Karachi.
• Blended retail tariff you're avoiding: a conservative **Rs35/unit** (many high-slab users pay far more).
• Self-consumption of **85%** of generation thanks to the battery; the remaining 15% exported at Rs10.

**Monthly value created:**

• Self-consumed: 1,560 × 0.85 = 1,326 units × Rs35 = **Rs46,410**
• Exported: 1,560 × 0.15 = 234 units × Rs10 = **Rs2,340**
• **Total monthly benefit ≈ Rs48,750**, or about **Rs585,000 per year**.

Against an all-in cost of, say, **PKR 1,700,000**, that's a payback of roughly **2.9 years**. Even if you're more cautious — lower generation, a Rs28 tariff, a pricier system at PKR 2,000,000 — you land in the **4–5 year** range.

That matches what independent analysts are seeing on the ground: solar-plus-storage is paying back in about **3–5 years for residential** users and **4–6 years for commercial and industrial** loads, *even after* the duty-driven battery price jump. On a system that lasts 25 years (panels) with a battery good for 8–12 years, that's a decade-plus of near-free evening power after break-even.

When a battery is worth it — and when it isn't

A battery is not automatically the right call. Size it to your *evening and night load*, not to your ego.

**A battery makes strong sense if you:**

• Have heavy evening/night consumption (ACs running past sunset, a home office, a shop open late).
• Face frequent load-shedding and currently run a generator or UPS you'd like to retire.
• Sit in a high tariff slab where every avoided unit is worth Rs40+.

**You can delay or skip storage if you:**

• Are a daytime-heavy user — a school, a 9-to-5 office, a factory running day shifts. Here a **grid-tied system with no battery** self-consumes most of its output naturally and still pays back in **2.5–3.5 years**. Don't buy storage you won't cycle.
• Are grandfathered on old net metering at Rs25+ — your export economics are still fine; run the numbers before adding a battery.

The trap to avoid is oversizing. A 15kWh bank that only ever discharges 6kWh a night is dead money. Add up the actual wattage of what you run after sunset, multiply by hours, and buy for *that* — usually 5–10kWh for a typical home.

Buying-guide checklist before you sign

• **Insist on a hybrid inverter** — it's what lets you prioritise self-consumption and add storage now or later.
• **Choose LFP (lithium iron phosphate)**, not lead-acid, for the cycle life that makes daily deep discharge economical.
• **Get the net-billing application handled** by your installer, and confirm which tariff and contract term applies to *your* connection date.
• **Model your own numbers**, not the brochure's. Use your last 12 months of bills and your real evening load.
• **Check warranties**: 25 years on panels, 10 years on the inverter, and a clear cycle warranty (ideally 6,000+ cycles) on the battery.

Net billing changed the winning strategy, not the outcome. The homeowners still coming out ahead are the ones who stopped trying to sell power to the grid and started refusing to buy it. For most Pakistani homes and businesses in 2026, a right-sized solar-plus-battery system does exactly that — and pays for itself in three to five years.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Is solar still worth it in Pakistan after net billing?**

Yes, but the value now comes from self-consumption rather than exports. Because you save Rs28–48 for every unit you use yourself versus earning only Rs8–11 for units you export, a system sized to consume its own output still pays back in roughly 3–5 years for homes.

**Did lithium batteries really get 48% more expensive?**

Roughly, yes. Pakistan imports almost all its lithium cells, and stacked duties and surcharges have pushed prices up by about 48%. Even so, the retail tariffs a battery helps you avoid have also risen, so storage still earns its keep.

**How big a battery do I actually need?**

Size it to your evening and night load. Add up the wattage of everything you run after sunset, multiply by the hours you run it, and buy for that figure — usually 5–10kWh for a typical household. Oversizing wastes money on capacity you'll never cycle.

**Do I need a battery at all, or just panels?**

If your consumption is mostly during daylight — a daytime office, school, or day-shift factory — a grid-tied system without a battery self-consumes most of its output and pays back in about 2.5–3.5 years. Batteries earn their cost fastest for evening-heavy loads and areas with frequent load-shedding.

**Are existing net-metering customers affected?**

No. Consumers already on net metering are grandfathered and continue selling at their original rate (around Rs25–27 per unit) for the remainder of their contract. Net billing applies to new solar connections.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.