Surplus Power Package vs Solar: Does Solar Still Pay in 2026?

• By Best Solar Company PK
• 29 Jul, 2026
• Solar Policy
• 7 min read

Pakistan's Power Division has floated a bold idea: a **surplus electricity package** that sells cheaper marginal grid units to push national demand higher and put idle power plants back to work. For any homeowner or business owner eyeing a rooftop investment, the question writes itself — if grid power is getting cheaper, does that wreck the solar payback math in 2026? The short answer is no, and this guide walks you through the exact PKR figures behind that conclusion.

What the surplus electricity package actually offers

The scheme, launched under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's directive, sells **incremental** (extra) consumption at a discounted rate of about **Rs 22.98 per unit**. Before it, industrial users paid roughly **Rs 34/unit** and agricultural tube-well users around **Rs 38/unit** on those marginal units. The logic is simple: Pakistan pays huge fixed "capacity charges" for plants that sit idle, so selling cheap extra units beats paying for electricity nobody uses.

It worked, at least on volume. Between December 2025 and February 2026, industry and agriculture consumed an extra **2,164 GWh**, delivering about **Rs 20.83 billion** in relief (Rs 19.6bn to industry, Rs 1.14bn to agriculture), with January consumption up 12% year-on-year.

Two things matter for solar buyers, though:

• The discounted marginal rate targets **industrial and agricultural** consumers — not ordinary households.
• As of **July 2026**, the Power Division is submitting a bi-annual reassessment to NEPRA after large consumers complained the package isn't beneficial enough. In other words, the "cheaper grid" promise is provisional and under review, per NEPRA{target="_blank" rel="noopener"} guidance.

Why cheaper grid units don't cancel your solar savings

Here's the piece most people miss. Even the *discounted* surplus rate of Rs 22.98/unit is still far above what a solar unit actually costs you.

A quality **10kW on-grid solar system** in Pakistan costs roughly **PKR 1.1 million** in 2026 and generates about **1,200 units per month**, or well over 300,000 units across a conservative 25-year life. That works out to a levelized cost of roughly **Rs 6–8 per unit**, even after allowing for one inverter replacement. Sunlight has no fuel-charge adjustment and no six-monthly review.

| Consumer type | Old marginal grid rate | Surplus-package rate | Your solar cost (LCOE) | |---|---|---|---| | Industry | ~Rs 34/unit | ~Rs 22.98/unit | ~Rs 6–8/unit | | Agriculture (tube wells) | ~Rs 38/unit | ~Rs 22.98/unit | ~Rs 6–8/unit | | Household (non-protected) | Rs 32–44/unit | Not eligible | ~Rs 6–8/unit |

Whether you compare against Rs 34, Rs 22.98, or a household's Rs 32–44/unit, self-generated solar wins by a wide margin. The surplus package narrows the gap for industry — it does not close it.

The 2026 change that really moves your payback

The surplus package is the headline, but the policy that truly reshapes solar economics is **net billing**. On **9 February 2026**, NEPRA's New Prosumer Regulations replaced the old 1:1 net metering. Now:

• Electricity you **import** is billed at the full retail slab rate.
• Electricity you **export** is bought back at a slashed rate — around **Rs 8.13/unit** for new applicants, down from Rs 25.32.
• Existing net-metering users are **grandfathered** at the old Rs 25.32/unit for their remaining term.
• New connections sign a **five-year** contract.

The practical takeaway: exporting surplus power to the grid is no longer lucrative. The smart 2026 design is to **size for self-consumption** — cover your daytime load first, and consider a battery to shift solar into the evening rather than dumping cheap units onto the grid. Read our full breakdown in NEPRA's net billing rules explained.

Solar payback math for a Pakistani home in 2026

Let's put real numbers on a typical non-protected household running ACs and paying Rs 35–44/unit.

• **System:** 10kW on-grid, ~PKR 1,100,000 installed with net billing setup
• **Output:** ~1,200 units/month
• **Self-consumed (≈60%, 720 units):** offsets grid power at ~Rs 40/unit = **Rs 28,800 saved**
• **Exported (≈40%, 480 units):** at Rs 8.13/unit buyback = **Rs 3,900 earned**
• **Monthly benefit:** ~**Rs 32,700** → ~Rs 392,000 per year

| Metric | Value | |---|---| | System cost | PKR 1,100,000 | | Annual savings + export | ~PKR 392,000 | | Simple payback | **~2.8 years** | | 25-year net saving | PKR 7–9 million+ |

Even after the buyback cut, payback lands under three years for a heavy user, because the real value is **avoiding** expensive retail units — not selling them. Push self-consumption higher (with a battery or by running pumps, ACs and washing in daylight) and the payback tightens further. See current 10kW solar system prices in Pakistan before you budget.

Should businesses on the surplus package still go solar?

Yes — and arguably with more urgency. A factory can buy marginal units at Rs 22.98 today, but that rate is under NEPRA review, exposed to fuel-cost adjustments, and could rise. Solar locks in Rs 6–8/unit for 25 years. The winning strategy for many industrial users is a **hybrid**: use the surplus package for cheap night-shift or peak load, and use rooftop solar to crush the expensive daytime baseline. For a deeper commercial view, see solar for factories and commercial units.

Frequently Asked Questions

**Does the surplus electricity package apply to home users?** No. As of 2026 the discounted marginal rate targets industrial and agricultural consumers to lift national demand. Households still pay standard slab tariffs — up to about Rs 43.95/unit for non-protected users — which is exactly why home solar remains so attractive.

**Will cheaper grid units make solar a bad investment in 2026?** No. Even the discounted Rs 22.98/unit rate is roughly three to four times the ~Rs 6–8/unit lifetime cost of your own solar power. Cheaper grid units shrink the gap for industry but never erase solar's advantage.

**How does net billing change my solar payback?** Exported units now earn only ~Rs 8.13 instead of Rs 25.32, so the payback comes mainly from self-consumption. Sizing your system to your daytime load — or adding a battery — keeps payback in the roughly 3-year range.

**Are existing net-metering users affected?** No. Consumers approved before the 9 February 2026 cutoff keep the old Rs 25.32/unit buyback for their contract term. Only new applicants fall under net billing.

**Is it better to wait and see if the surplus package expands to homes?** Waiting costs you money. Every month on a Rs 35–44/unit bill is money you can't recover, and solar equipment prices are already near historic lows. Locking in today beats betting on a package that NEPRA may revise.

The bottom line

The surplus electricity package is a demand-recovery tool for factories and farms, not a reason for homeowners to hesitate. With retail tariffs high, solar hardware cheap, and self-consumption now the smart play under net billing, going solar in Pakistan still pays — typically inside three years. The policy tweaks change *how* you design your system, not *whether* it's worth it.

Ready to run your own numbers? Get a free solar quote from Best Solar Company PK and we'll size a system around your bill, your roof, and 2026's net-billing rules.

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.