Rs1.34/Unit Hike: Why DISCOs Are Blaming Solar for Falling Grid Sales

• By Best Solar Company PK
• 21 Aug, 2026
• Solar Policy
• 8 min read

Pakistan's power sector has a new scapegoat: the solar panels on your roof. In August 2026, distribution companies (DISCOs) and K-Electric asked NEPRA to approve a **quarterly tariff adjustment of Rs33.778 billion** — roughly **Rs1.34 per unit** — for the April–June 2026 quarter. Their justification? Falling electricity sales, which the utilities blame squarely on rapid solarisation.

For anyone who has installed solar, or is planning to, this is the story to watch. The quarterly tariff adjustment itself is temporary, but the argument behind it — that solar users are "shifting the burden" onto everyone else — is the opening move in a longer fight over **solar surcharges** in Pakistan. Understanding it now helps you protect your investment.

What the Rs33.8bn quarterly adjustment actually covers

A quarterly tariff adjustment (QTA) is a routine mechanism. NEPRA lets DISCOs recover the gap between what they projected and what actually happened in a quarter. For April–June 2026 (Q2 of FY26), the numbers break down like this:

• **Rs46.280 billion** — capacity charges (payments to power plants for being available, whether they generate or not)
• **Rs4.936 billion** — variable operation and maintenance costs
• **–Rs13.517 billion** — a negative adjustment for Use of System Charges and Market Operator Fee

Netted out, that lands at **Rs33.778 billion**. Notably, DISCOs initially sought only Rs23.031 billion before revising the figure upward. If approved, it will appear as a one-off Rs1.34/unit line on bills for a set period, then drop off.

That distinction matters. Capacity payments are a legacy of the "take-or-pay" contracts signed with independent power producers years ago. When grid demand falls, those fixed costs get spread across fewer units — pushing up the per-unit charge for everyone still buying from the grid.

The 11% grid sales drop — and the solar blame game

Here is the statistic driving the panic. According to the Pakistan Electricity Review 2026, grid electricity sales fell from **125 TWh in FY22 to 111 TWh in FY25** — an **11% decline over three years**. Meanwhile, distributed solar generation is now estimated at around **51 TWh**, covering nearly **46% of total grid sales**.

DISCOs point to this and say solar is eroding their revenue base. In their QTA filings, several utilities reported declining domestic sales due to solarisation. FESCO, for example, reported a roughly **5% drop in domestic sales**, even as its industrial consumption rose about 2%. The utilities also cited lower farm demand and an unusually cold April.

But the picture is more nuanced than "solar is killing the grid." The same electricity review notes that the number of grid consumers actually **grew by 5.3%** over the period. People are not leaving the grid — they are leaning on it less, using it as backup while generating their own power by day. Overall electricity demand in the country has not collapsed; it has shifted.

Crucially, a **NEPRA member publicly rejected the solarisation argument**, stating it was incorrect to claim solar power had adversely affected electricity sales. That regulatory pushback is important: it means the "blame solar" narrative is contested even inside the authority that sets tariffs.

Grid sales, then and now: a quick comparison

| Metric | FY22 | FY25 | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Grid electricity sales | 125 TWh | 111 TWh | –11% | | Distributed solar generation | Low | ~51 TWh | Sharp rise | | Solar as share of grid sales | Small | ~46% | Major shift | | Number of grid consumers | Base | +5.3% | Growing |

The table tells the real story: consumers are multiplying, but grid dependence per consumer is dropping as rooftop solar scales.

What the utility backlash means for future solar surcharges

This is where Pakistani homeowners and businesses need to pay attention. The QTA is a symptom; the disease — from the DISCOs' perspective — is that self-generation shrinks their billable base. Their preferred cures point toward higher costs for solar users:

• **Lower buyback rates.** This has already happened. Under the NEPRA (Prosumer) Regulations, 2026 — effective **9 February 2026** — new solar users shifted from net metering to **net billing**. The buyback rate for exported units was cut to **Rs8.13 per unit**, less than one-third of the previous **Rs25.32 per unit**.
• **Fixed or capacity charges on solar homes.** Expect continued pressure to levy fixed monthly charges tied to sanctioned load, so solar users still contribute to grid upkeep even if they import few units.
• **Framing solar as a "cost shift."** The QTA language sets up the political argument that non-solar consumers are subsidising solar owners — a narrative that can justify future surcharges.

For a deeper look at the payout changes, see our guide on the shift from net metering to net billing and how to protect your solar payback under the new rules.

The practical takeaway: the economics of exporting surplus power to the grid have weakened. The economics of **using your own solar power directly** — and reducing grid imports — remain strong, and are arguably strengthening as grid tariffs climb.

An original tip: design for self-consumption, not export

Here is the concrete, practical shift we now recommend to every client. In the net-metering era, oversizing a system to sell surplus at Rs25+/unit made sense. Under net billing at Rs8.13/unit, that math no longer holds.

Instead, **right-size your system to your daytime load** and consider **battery storage** to capture your own generation for evening use. A unit you consume yourself offsets grid electricity at the full retail tariff (often Rs45–65/unit in higher slabs) — that is worth far more than exporting it for Rs8.13. In a climate where surcharges may keep rising, energy you never buy from the grid is the safest return you can lock in.

Frequently Asked Questions

**What is the Rs1.34 per unit quarterly tariff adjustment?** It is a Rs33.778 billion recovery DISCOs and K-Electric asked NEPRA to approve for the April–June 2026 quarter, driven mainly by Rs46 billion in capacity payments spread over fewer grid units. If approved, it appears as a temporary Rs1.34/unit charge on bills.

**Is solar really causing electricity prices to rise in Pakistan?** Only partly. Solar has reduced grid sales, which spreads fixed capacity payments over fewer units. But a NEPRA member rejected the claim that solar is the main cause, and grid consumer numbers actually grew 5.3%. The bigger cost driver is take-or-pay capacity contracts.

**Will there be a new solar surcharge in Pakistan?** No blanket solar surcharge has been imposed yet, but the direction of travel is clear. NEPRA already cut the net-billing buyback rate to Rs8.13/unit in February 2026, and utilities are pushing for fixed charges. Existing net-metering agreements are grandfathered at their old rates until they expire.

**Should I still install solar given these changes?** Yes — but design for self-consumption rather than export. Offsetting grid power you would otherwise buy at Rs45–65/unit delivers far better returns than selling surplus at Rs8.13/unit. Solar remains one of the strongest hedges against rising tariffs and surcharges.

The bottom line

The Rs33.8bn quarterly adjustment is temporary, but the argument beneath it is not. DISCOs have found a convenient explanation for a structural problem — expensive, idle capacity payments — and solar users are the target. NEPRA's own pushback shows the narrative is far from settled, but smart consumers should plan for a future where grid exports pay little and self-generation pays most.

Thinking about going solar or upgrading for storage? Talk to Best Solar Company PK for a system designed around Pakistan's new net-billing reality — one that protects your savings whichever way the surcharge debate goes.

*Sources: The News — Consumers face Rs33.8bn power hit as solarisation cuts grid sales, Profit by Pakistan Today — DISCOs seek Rs33.78bn tariff hike, The News — Grid electricity sales fall 11pc over three years, Profit by Pakistan Today — NEPRA ends net metering, shifts to net billing.*

Best Solar Company PK designs and installs reliable solar systems in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Taunsa Sharif and Karachi. Contact us for a free survey and the best advice for your home or business.